Elections in Asia versus Europe: Stricter Regimes and Stricter Stances

Elections in Asia versus Europe: Stricter Regimes and Stricter Stances

Shaurya Vats and Sreyoshi Guharoy

Introduction

2024 was marked by global disruption, with rising geopolitical tensions and conflicts intensifying across regions including West Asia, Ukraine, and Sudan. Against this turbulent backdrop, 50 countries held elections, with power transfers profoundly influenced by these global factors. This article examines these common influences on national elections worldwide, analyzing how their effects varied across diverse regions like Europe and Asia. Through this analysis, we aim to demonstrate the growing intersection of global political forces and how the shifting international order impacts domestic politics.

Asia

In October 2023, Japanese voters delivered a decisive mandate that resulted in significant losses for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner, New Komeito. For the first time since 2009, they lost the parliamentary majority they had long maintained (Nikkei Asia, 2024). Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's strategy to call a snap election to strengthen his administration backfired dramatically. The coalition lost 70 seats and their ability to govern independently, forcing them to form a minority government instead. This defeat was largely attributed to a recent financial scandal (the 2023-2024 slush fund scandal) and escalating inflation.

The Japanese economy, which had struggled with deflation for three decades, found rising inflation particularly difficult to manage. The Russia-Ukraine conflict triggered price increases in essential goods like wheat and energy. This, combined with the Japanese yen falling to its lowest level against the US dollar in 34 years (Nikkei Asia, 2024a), created an unprecedented situation in a nation where the population had grown accustomed to stable or falling prices. Inflation exceeded 2.4 percent in September 2024, causing significant hardship for households and businesses (Kihara, 2024).

The situation was especially challenging for voters living on fixed pensions. With pension increases failing to keep pace with inflation, elderly citizens-who typically have higher voter turnout-experienced an effective drop in income (Nikkei Asia, 2022). A war halfway across the world, over which the Japanese government had limited control, thus significantly influenced Japan's elections to the detriment of the LDP.

A similar pattern emerged in Taiwan's elections, where the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) faced mixed results. While their candidate, William Lai Ching-te, won the presidency, the party suffered significant losses in the legislature. China employed both pressure tactics and incentives to influence these electoral outcomes. On the threatening side, Chinese fighter jets regularly crossed the median line in increasing numbers (Wingfield-Hayes, 2023), while disinformation campaigns flourished across platforms like YouTube and Twitch.

The Information Operations Research Group (IORG), a think tank investigating disinformation, identified 84 types of anti-US narratives (Yimeilun) circulating on social media and messaging platforms like Line. Organizations were reportedly bribed to amplify Chinese narratives and undermine trust in Taiwan's allies (Wong, 2024). The pressure extended to candidates themselves-billionaire Foxconn founder Kuo Tai-ming abandoned his presidential bid amid speculation of Chinese interference. This followed after four Chinese provinces launched investigations into his company's tax and land use practices (Focus Taiwan - CNA English News, 2023). Meanwhile, Chinese troll groups actively targeted the DPP by spreading misleading information about the party's cross-strait policies, according to research by Taiwan AI Labs. These activities mirrored foreign interference seen in other democracies like the US and Germany (Meaker, 2024).

Simultaneously, China offered economic incentives to Taiwan, including reduced restrictions such as allowing Taiwanese companies to list on Chinese stock exchanges, establishing a cross-Strait integrated development zone in Fujian, and easing travel restrictions for Taiwanese citizens visiting mainland China. This carrot-and-stick approach exemplifies how external powers can influence democratic processes. On the other side of the globe, Europe has experienced similar political disruption, with economic anxiety driving electoral outcomes and fueling the rapid rise of far-right movements-a direct consequence of historic policies on welfare and migration.

Europe

While Asian elections were shaped by regional powers and economic pressures, Europe faced its own distinct challenges that nonetheless revealed similar patterns of external influence and economic anxiety. The continent witnessed a significant rightward shift in multiple countries, with immigration and economic security emerging as central electoral issues.

The Netherlands was the first domino to fall in 2024, followed by Sweden and Austria, while France and Denmark bucked the trend with center-left coalition governments. Britain's Brexit vote in 2016 had already signaled a shift away from conventional politics-notably, areas with higher immigrant populations were more likely to vote to leave the European Union. Germany's political climate similarly turned toward isolationism and protectionism amid rising crime rates, including offenses against women reportedly committed by immigrants. This pattern emerged across Western Europe following the influx of asylum seekers from countries like Syria, resulting in cultural tensions and subsequent Islamophobic reactions. Economic concerns, including wage depression and neighborhood segregation due to increased immigration, further fueled discontent. Right-leaning parties effectively capitalized on these social and economic anxieties to gain significant political power.

Austria

Austria has a long history of far-right political influence, with the Freedom Party of Austria (FPO) consistently gaining traction since the 1990s. Economic anxiety stemming from rising energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and job security fears led to widespread political discontent. The ruling coalition of the conservative Austrian People's Party (OVP) and Greens suffered significant losses as voters shifted toward the FPO, which won 28.8 percent of the vote-a 12 percent increase from previous elections. Meanwhile, the OVP received only 26.3 percent, marking a historic 11 percent decrease. The FPO successfully leveraged public dissatisfaction by combining anti-immigration policies (including strict border controls), Islamophobic narratives (evidenced by Austria's demand to formally end EU-Turkey accession talks), and opposition to environmental protections perceived as harmful to rural industries. In February 2025, the coalition government that included the FPO implemented strict immigration measures: seizing refugees' belongings, temporarily suspending family reunification, and making German language proficiency mandatory for integration. The government also focused on developing gas diversification strategies to secure supply chains disrupted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict while supporting decarbonisation efforts.

Netherlands

Geert Wilders of the Party for Freedom (PVV) represents a populist leadership style reminiscent of Donald Trump or Boris Johnson. While advocating divisive policies such as banning Islamic schools, Wilders shrewdly capitalized on economic anxiety in rural areas by opposing EU Green Reforms on nitrogen emissions that had sparked farmer protests. The Netherlands was among the first countries to turn rightward in search of solutions that centrists had failed to provide, particularly regarding economic sovereignty and concerns about excessive public spending. Anti-asylum policies-including halting family reunification and removing housing provision obligations at the local level-addressed native concerns about housing shortages. Recent developments show the government leveraging the EU's 2024 Pact on Migration and Asylum to focus on "externalization" for Syrian refugees or evacuation to designated safe regions in countries of origin. The coalition government has allocated €10 million for language-learning initiatives, making Dutch proficiency mandatory for immigrants in an effort to reduce unskilled migration (Amsterdam, 2025).

France

While appearing to elect a left-wing government, France succumbed to the same populist momentum affecting its neighbors. President Macron's strategy of calling a snap election to amplify centrist voices backfired, resulting in a hung parliament. The country faces high deficit, mounting public debt, and economic uncertainty-conditions that the Rassemblement National effectively exploited to intensify migration concerns among French citizens. Both the RN and the victorious New Popular Front (Nouveau Front Populaire) promised substantial economic reforms and revenue growth through cuts to social security and welfare programs. Public sector spending has been reduced, with over 2,200 civil service positions and 4,000 teaching jobs eliminated. State inflation-adjustment reimbursements to pensions have been decreased to achieve projected savings of 3.6 billion euros. Healthcare budgets have also faced significant cuts, with the cap on sick leave payments reduced from 1.8 times to 1.4 times the minimum wage (Hird, 2024). While the RN opposes EU Green Reforms, the NFP maintains its commitment to environmental protections.

Denmark

In Denmark, where migration issues have been politicized since the 2000s and the far-right Danish People's Party claimed victory in 2014, one might expect alignment with the broader European trend. Yet Mette Frederiksen's Social Democrats have successfully held ground by implementing Europe's strictest immigration policies-responding decisively to the 2015 migrant crisis by emphasizing the transfer of refugees to "safe third-world alternatives" like Rwanda. The party has also demonstrated sensitivity to public sentiment regarding environmental and security concerns. While far-right parties typically follow the Trump model of withdrawing from multilateral climate agreements, the Danish public broadly supports aggressive climate action, including a legally binding target of 70 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and taxation of livestock emissions. Traditionally, Euroskeptic far-right parties diverge from EU security policy while aligning more closely with NATO, but Danish support for Ukraine has grown substantially, and previous reluctance toward defense cooperation has diminished.

Germany

Germany's upcoming 2025 elections could face similar challenges, with the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) gaining significant influence. A recent political misstep by the center-right coalition has strengthened the AfD's position. Christian Democrat leader Merz took a hardline stance by formally denouncing the AfD, only to have the far-right party publicly support a motion he attempted to pass. This undermined Merz's position within his party and violated one of Germany's unspoken political rules: never cooperate with the extreme right-or simply put, "don't negotiate with terrorists" (AP News, 2025).

Conclusion

Analyzing countries that diverge from the rightward trend reveals that parties across the political spectrum have adopted similar anti-immigration stances. Where left or center-left parties have effectively addressed the social anxieties of working people, the frustration-driven shift to right-wing politics has been less pronounced. This suggests that the political orientation of winning parties may be less significant than the growing consensus on anti-immigrant policies in conventional politics and the steady spread of populism throughout Europe.

The significant convergence of economic and social anxieties, further exacerbated by external interference from countries like China, has created a crisis of trust in traditional governance. This has produced an unpredictable political landscape characterized by policy shifts toward cultural homogeneity and national sovereignty. Increasingly, domestic politics are influenced by international events beyond individual governments' control, such as migration, conflict, and climate change.

Democratic nations would be wise to follow Denmark's example by accurately diagnosing and addressing citizens' concerns. The rising tide of populism cannot be held back through parliamentary maneuvering, as attempted in France, or internal restructuring, as seen in Japan. The most effective approach to preventing extremist elements from gaining control appears to be addressing the legitimate issues raised by such parties-a strategy successfully implemented in Denmark.

References

• Amsterdam, T. (2025). Dutch Migration Policy Reform. *Amsterdam Times*, March 2025.
• AP News. (2025). German CDU-AfD Controversy Escalates. *AP News*. Retrieved from [https://apnews.com](https://apnews.com)
• Focus Taiwan - CNA English News. (2023). Terry Gou Withdraws from Taiwan Race. *CNA*. Retrieved from [https://focustaiwan.tw](https://focustaiwan.tw)
• Hird, T. (2024). Macron's Budget Reforms and Public Reaction. *Le Monde*, June 2024.
• Kihara, L. (2024). Japan's Economic Outlook Darkens Amid Inflation. *Reuters Japan*.
• Meaker, M. (2024). Disinformation Tactics Across Democracies. *WIRED*, February 2024.
• Nikkei Asia. (2022). Japan's Aging Population and Pension Crisis. *Nikkei Asia*, November 2022.
• Nikkei Asia. (2024). Japan's Election Upends Power Structure. *Nikkei Asia*, October 2024.
• Nikkei Asia. (2024a). Yen Hits Historic Low Against Dollar. *Nikkei Asia*, September 2024.
• Wingfield-Hayes, R. (2023). Chinese Air Activity Near Taiwan Surges. *BBC News*, December 2023.
• Wong, A. (2024). Taiwan Elections Targeted by Disinformation. *The Diplomat*, January 2024.
• Yimeilun. (2024). Anti-US Narratives in Taiwan Social Media. *IORG Report*, March 2024.